Seminars

Seminars

November 2024

22 Nov 2024

3pm

Venue:

Active Learning

Room 1

(S16-05-17)

Speaker:
Prof Josef Teichmann

ETH Zurich

Signature Expansion from the point of view of Invariant Theory

We characterize signature components as invariant polynomials with respect to time reparametrizations of bounded variation curves. Applications to approximations of path space functionals, as they appear often in Finance or Economics, are shown. (joint work with Walter Schachermayer and Valentin Tissot-Daguette)

Register here.

11 Nov 2024

3pm

Guest Tutorial

Venue:

Seminar room 

(S17-04-06)

Speakers:

Immanuel M. Bomze

University of Vienna

Uncertain standard quadratic optimization: older and newer results
(joint work with P.Amaral, D.de Vicente, M.Gabl, M.Kahr, M.Leitner, F.Maggioni, G.Pflug)

Optimization problems where only the objective is uncertain arise, for instance, prominently in the analysis of social networks. Here the link strengths enter the objective while the constraints are familiar probability constraints, so that they can be considered certain.

Hence we investigate data uncertainty in the objective function of StQPs, considering different uncertainty sets, and derive implications for the complexity of robust variants of the corresponding deterministic counterparts. We can show that considering data uncertainty in a StQP results in another StQP of the same complexity if ellipsoidal, spherical or boxed uncertainty sets are assumed.

Moreover we discuss implications when considering polyhedral uncertainty sets, and derive rigorous bounds for this case, based upon copositive optimization. The same strategy can be followed in a min-max regret approach for this problem class, if only finitely many uncertain scenarios (and only few of them) are possible.

Another way to deal with uncertainty, if only part of the data are unknown, is a 2-stage-stochastic approach. Again, employing advanced modern first-order methods, the tight conic bounds can be successfully exploited to solve this NP-hard optimization problem with satisfactory results.

Finally, under specific but fairly natural distributional assumptions, a chance-constrained epigraphic approach is presented which exhibits the same phenomenon as the first model: trust your data or not – Standard (QP) remains Standard.

Keywords. Graph clustering, community detection, dominant set, robust optimization, stochastic optimization, quadratic optimization.

Register here.

08 Nov 2024

3pm

Jointly with the Department of Analytics and Operations

– NUS Business School

Venue:

Seminar room 

(S17-04-06)

Speakers:
Nan Chen

The Chinese University of Hong Kong


Immanuel M. Bomze

University of Vienna

 

Collusion or Compete: A Two Timescale Evolutionary Game Approach to Algorithmic Collusion Study by Prof Nan Chen

We propose a two-time scale evolutionary game approach to address multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problems. The algorithm is built on three key components. First, we employ a perturbed best response to update agents’ policies. Second, we utilize a fictitious play rule to refine agents’ beliefs of their opponents. Third, policies and beliefs are updated at different learning rates compared to those used for Q-value updates. This novel approach provably converges to e-Nash equilibria in general-sum MARL problems without
imposing the restrictive assumptions commonly found in the literature.
AI-powered algorithms are increasingly adopted in marketplaces for pricing goods and services. However, regulators and academics have raised serious concerns about the potential for these algorithms to learn collusive behavior through their strategic interactions. While researchers predominantly rely on Q-learning to model the behavior of pricing algorithms, this method lacks convergence guarantees in multi-agent settings. Our approach offers an innovative framework for studying algorithmic collusion. Numerical experiments indicate that the sophistication of algorithms is a significant driving force behind the emergence of
collusion among algorithmic agents.
This talk is based on joint work with Ruixun Zhang and Yumin Xu (Peking University) and Mingyue Zhong (CUHK).

Community Detection in (Social) Networks Under Uncertainty (joint work with M.Kahr and M.Leitner) by Prof Immanuel Bomze

During the last decades the importance of considering data uncertainty in optimization problems has become increasingly apparent, since small fluctuations of input data may lead to comparably bad decisions in many practical problems when uncertainty is ignored. If the probability distribution of the uncertain data is not known (or cannot be estimated with sufficient precision), a common technique is to estimate bounds on the uncertain data and to identify optimal solutions that are robust against data fluctuations within these bounds. This approach leads to the robust optimization paradigm that allows to consider uncertain objectives and constraints [1].

Optimization problems where only the objective is uncertain arise, for instance, prominently in the analysis of social networks. This stems from the fact that the strength of social ties (i.e., the amount of influence individuals exert on each other) or the willingness of individuals to adopt and share information can, for example, only be roughly estimated based on observations. A fundamental problem arising in social network analysis regards the identification of communities (e.g., work groups, interest groups), which can be modeled as a Dominant Set Clustering Problem [5,6,7] which in turn leads to a Standard Quadratic Optimization Problems (StQP); see [2]. Here the link strengths enter the objective while the constraints are familiar probability constraints, so that they can be considered certain.

Hence we investigate data uncertainty in the objective function of StQPs, considering different uncertainty sets, and derive implications for the complexity of robust variants of the corresponding deterministic counterparts. We can show that considering data uncertainty in a StQP results in another StQP of the same complexity if ellipsoidal, spherical or boxed uncertainty sets are assumed [4]. Moreover we discuss implications when considering polyhedral uncertainty sets, and derive rigorous bounds for this case, based upon copositive optimization [3].

Keywords: Graph clustering, community detection, dominant set, robust optimization, quadratic optimization.

References:

[1] Ben-Tal A, El Ghaoui L, Nemirovski AS (2009) Robust optimization. Princeton Series in Applied Mathematics (Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press).

[2] Bomze IM (1998) On standard quadratic optimization problems. Journal of Global Optimization 13(4):369–387.

[3] Bomze IM (2012) Copositive optimization – Recent developments and applications. European Journal of Operational Research 216(3):509–520.

[4] Bomze IM, Kahr M, Leitner M (2021) Trust your data or not – StQP remains StQP: Community Detection via Robust Standard Quadratic Optimization. Mathematics of Operations Research  46:301-316.

[5] Pavan M, Pelillo M (2007) Dominant sets and pairwise clustering. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 29(1):167–172.

[6] Rota Bulò S, Pelillo M (2017) Dominant-set clustering: A review. European Journal of Operational Research 262(1):1–13.

[7] Rota Bulò S, Pelillo M, Bomze IM (2011) Graph-based quadratic optimization: A fast evolutionary approach. Computer Vision and Image Understanding 115(7):984–995.

Register here.

Past Seminars 2024

October 2024

25 Oct 2024

3pm

Venue:

Seminar room 

(S17-05-11)

Speaker:
Maristany de las Casas, Pedro

Zuse Institute Berlin

Introduction to Multiobjective Combinatorial Optimization with a focus on path-finding applications

In Multiobjective Optimization, feasible solutions are not evaluated based on a single scalar cost function. Instead, each feasible solution is assessed using multiple objective functions, which often conflict with one another. As a result, no solution minimizes all objective functions simultaneously. In this context, comparing two feasible solutions and determining which one is better becomes more challenging. Therefore, the concept of optimality for feasible solutions must be redefined.

 

In this talk, we focus on Multiobjective Combinatorial Optimization problems. In the first part of the talk, we discuss two widely used and generic solution approaches: the Weighted Sum Scalarization method and the ε-Constraint method. We then shift our attention to a new generation of highly efficient algorithms for solving Multiobjective Shortest Path applications, including Multiobjective Dynamic Programming. Finally, we address a key challenge in solving multiobjective problems in general: the new definition of optimality often leads to a large number of feasible solutions being considered optimal. This creates a need to develop approximation algorithms that can compute a meaningful subset of the optimal solutions. We briefly discuss Representations as an appealing parametrized approximation technique.

 


Seminar recording here. (Password: !B0M4xLN )

 

18 Oct 2024

3pm

Venue:

Seminar room 

(S17-04-06)

Speaker:
Neng Wang 

Columbia Business School

Strategic Investment under Uncertainty with First- and Second-mover Advantages

We analyze firm entry in a duopoly real-option game. The interaction between first- and second-mover advantages gives rise to a unique Markov subgame-perfect symmetric equilibrium, featuring state-contingent pure and mixed strategies in multiple endogenously-determined regions. In addition to the standard option-value-of-waiting region, a second waiting region arises because of the second-mover advantage. For sufficiently high market demand, waiting preserves the second-mover advantage but forgoes profits. Two disconnected mixed-strategy regions where firms enter probabilistically sur- face. In one such region, Leader earns monopoly rents while Follower optimally waits. Finally, when the first-mover advantage dominates the second-mover advantage, firms enter using pure strategies. 


Register here.

 

September 2024

13 Sept 2024

3pm

Venue:

Seminar room 

(S17-04-06)

Speaker:
Wolfgang Karl Härdle 

Humboldt University

Emoji driven crypto assets market reactions

In the burgeoning realm of cryptocurrency, social media platforms like Twitter have become pivotal in influencing market trends and investor sentiments. In our study, we leverage GPT-4 and a finetuned transformer-based BERT model for a multimodal sentiment analysis, focusing on the impact of emoji sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. By translating emojis into quantifiable sentiment data, we correlate these insights with key market indicators such as BTC Price and the VCRIX index. Our architecture’s analysis of emoji sentiment demonstrated a distinct advantage over FinBERT’s pure text sentiment analysis in such predicting power. This approach may be fed into the development of trading
strategies aimed at utilizing social media elements to identify and forecast market trends. Crucially, our findings suggest that strategies based on emoji sentiment can facilitate the avoidance of significant market downturns and contribute to the stabilization of returns. This research underscores the practical benefits of integrating advanced AI-driven analyzes into financial strategies, offering a nuanced perspective on the interaction between digital communication and market dynamics in an academic context.


Seminar recording here.

August 2024

23 Aug 2024

11am

Venue:

Seminar room

(S16-03-09)

Speaker:
Steven Kou

Questrom School of Business

Non-Standard Dynamic Utility Maximization

Prof Steven Kou will survey recent research on non-standard dynamic utility maximization, where the utility function may not be concave or increasing. Examples include (1) payoffs from equity-linked life insurance contracts or option-type managerial compensation, (2) nonconcave utility functions used in behavioral economics, (3) the goal problems in household finance, (4) dynamic mean-variance analysis, and (5) median and quantile maximization. The latter two also have time inconsistency issues.


Seminar recording here. (Passcode: .ef1i64F) 

16 Aug 2024

3pm

Venue:

Seminar room

(S17-04-06)

Speaker:
Denis Belomestny

Duisburg-Essen University

A Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space approach to singular local stochastic volatility McKean-Vlasov models

Motivated by the challenges related to the calibration of financial models, we consider the problem of numerically solving a singular McKean-Vlasov equation. Prof Denis Belomestny considers this equation as a singular local stochastic volatility model. Whilst such models are quite popular among practitioners, unfortunately, its well-posedness has not been fully understood yet and, in general, is possibly not guaranteed at all. 

Seminar recording here. (Passcode: zETU0?JH )

July 2024

30 Jul 2024

3pm

Venue:

Seminar room

(S16-03-05/06 )

Speaker:

Rama Cont

University of Oxford

Learning to simulate: harnessing generative models for finance

Generative models present a formidable potential for applications in finance, in particular for scenario simulation and ‘synthetic data’ generation. Prof Rama Cont will discuss some challenges related to the use of generative models in finance and present a principled approach to the design of generative models suitable for financial applications. We illustrate the approach through the example of TailGAN, a generative model for simulating tail risk scenarios

 

Professor Rama Cont is a Distinguished Visitor at the NUS Centre for Quantitative Finance


Seminar recording here. (Passcode: 43Qm.ip2 )

4 Jul 2024

2pm

Venue:

Seminar room

(S16-03-05/06 )

Speaker:

Libo Li

University of New South Wales

Vulnerable European and American Options in a Market Model with Optional Hazard

Prof Libo Li studies the upper and lower bounds for prices of European and American style options with the possibility of an external termination, meaning that the contract may be terminated at some random time. Under the assumption that the underlying market model is incomplete and frictionless, we obtain duality results linking the upper price of a vulnerable European option with the price of an American option whose exercise times are constrained to times at which the external termination can happen with a non-zero probability. Similarly, the upper and lower prices for an vulnerable American option are linked to the price of an American option and a game option, respectively. In particular, the minimizer of the game option is only allowed to stop at times which the external termination may occur with a non-zero probability


Seminar recording
here. (Passcode: f86SC*!k )

June 2024

24 Jun 2024

4pm - 5.30pm

Venue:

LTB room (AS2-03-12)

Speaker:

Abhimanyu Gupta

University of Essex

Testing linearity of spatial interaction functions

Abstract:

We propose a computationally straightforward test for the linearity of a spatial interaction function. Such functions arise commonly, either as practitioner imposed specifications or due to optimizing behaviour. Our test is nonparametric, but based on the Lagrange Multiplier principle. This entails estimation only under the null hypothesis, which yields a familiar, easy to estimate linear spatial autoregressive model. Monte Carlo simulations show excellent size control and power. An empirical study with Finnish data illustrates the test’s practical usefulness, shedding light on debates in the public finance literature on the presence of tax competition among neighbouring municipalities.

April 2024

19 April 2024

3pm

Speaker:
Anna Aksamit

University of Sydney

Robust Duality for multi-action options with information delay

Prof Anna Aksamit will show the super-hedging duality for multi-action options which generalise American options to a larger space of actions (possibly uncountable) than {stop, continue}. We put ourselves in the framework of Bouchard & Nutz model relying on analytic measurable selection theorem. Finally we consider information delay on the action component of the product space. Register here.

 

Seminar recording here. (Passcode: LWeG2S.k )

5 April 2024

5pm

Speaker:
Ray-bing Chen

National Cheng Kung University

Category Tree Gaussian Process for Computer Experiments with Many-Category Qualitative Factors and Application to Cooling System Design

Motivated by the computer experiments for the design of a cooling system, a new tree-based GP is proposed that emulates computer models with many-category qualitative factors, which we call category tree GP. Prof Ray-Bing Chen talks about this new tree-based GP. Register here.

March 2024

26 March 2024

3pm

Speaker:
Chong Liu

ShanghaiTech University

Higher Rank Signatures in Adapted Topologies

In this talk Prof Chong LIU will discuss about some recent theoretical advances for this topic in the last five years, and then explain how to apply the signature methods from rough path theory to compute the distances between stochastic processes in adapted topologies. Register here.

 

Seminar recording here. (Passcode: GX+9n*A3)

22 March 2024

3pm

Speaker:
Choi Jin Hyuk

Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology

Asymptotic analysis of portfolio optimization with search frictions and transaction costs

Prof Jin Hyuk CHOI considers an optimal investment problem to maximize expected utility (CRRA) of the terminal wealth in a market with search frictions and transaction costs. He will discuss asymptotic analysis of the value function and the no-trade boundaries for small search frictions and transaction costs at the same time. Register here.

 

Seminar recording here. (Passcode: =d2xSF3@)

8 March 2024

3pm

Speaker:
Feida Zhu

Singapore Management University

When AI meets Web3 for Sustainable Digital Economy

How to provide both trust and incentive when data, model and computational resources come from different entities? Web3 offers a solution. In this talk, Prof ZHU Feida will give an overview for the potential integration between AI and Web3, with the challenges and core technical components. Register here.